Egg prices rose to $14 for a dozen in some areas of Southern California; not sure what egg prices are nationwide.
Eggs in my neighborhood used to cost $2.99 to $7.99; depending on the type of eggs you buy (white, brown, pasture-raised, free range, etc.) and where you shop for your groceries. The increase was over 200% in some areas!
Costco was the most reasonable because you could buy two dozens (rather than one dozen) for the same price. However, those eggs don’t stay two hours on Costco shelves. So the store had to ration the
eggs at three max per customer.
I love eggs and the price increase was felt. I buy mostly from Costco. A few times I’d get to Costco and they’d be sold out. Now, I have to go to the other stores which were much higher-priced.
How about you – did you feel the increase?
Well, the price seems to have dropped a little. Hopefully it will drop even lower.
But I wonder why the sudden increase when the bird flu has been on since 2022.
The sudden surge in egg prices became a pressing concern for consumers and businesses alike. Several factors contributed to this escalation, notably the ongoing bird flu outbreak. Many however opined that the recent tariff policies implemented by the current administration also contributed.
Impact of the Bird Flu Outbreak
The United States has grappled with a severe bird flu epidemic since early 2022, leading to the loss of nearly 170 million birds. This substantial reduction in poultry has tightened egg supplies, driving prices upward. In response, the U.S. has nearly doubled egg imports from Brazil, primarily for processed foods, aiming to alleviate the domestic shortage.
Tariff Policies and Their Economic Implications
In February 2025, President Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on imports from China, citing national security concerns. He also recently imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela, including a 25% on countries importing oil from the country.
These measures have led to increased costs for imported goods, including agricultural products, thereby contributing to overall inflation.
Consequences for Egg Prices
The convergence of the bird flu outbreak and heightened tariffs has allegedly strained the egg supply chain, leading to elevated prices.
As of March 21, 2025, the average price for a dozen large shell eggs in California dropped to $7.18, reflecting a lower undertone in the market. Nationally, egg prices have surged on average by approximately 60% compared to the previous year.
Government Initiatives to Mitigate Rising Costs
To address escalating egg prices, the Trump administration announced a $1 billion plan to support farmers and explore vaccine options against bird flu. Additionally, regulatory changes are under consideration to utilize eggs from chickens raised for meat in processed foods, aiming to bolster supply.
Outlook and Consumer Guidance
While wholesale egg prices have seen a 47% decrease since January 24, 2025, dropping by $3.10 per dozen, consumers have not experience substantial and immediate relief at the retail level due to persistent supply constraints and ongoing tariff impacts. It is advisable for consumers to stay informed about market trends and consider alternative protein sources as the situation evolves.
In summary, the interplay between the bird flu outbreak and recent tariff policies has significantly influenced the surge in egg prices. Continued efforts by the government and industry stakeholders are crucial to stabilize the market and ensure affordability for consumers.
Are American farmers not producing eggs any more that we have to turn to importing from Brazil?
Great question – I’m glad you asked! American farmers are still producing eggs, but the industry has been hit hard by the ongoing bird flu outbreak, which has significantly reduced the supply. Since 2022, bird flu has led to the loss of millions of egg-laying hens, creating a domestic shortage. As a result, the U.S. government has looked to Brazil; one of the world’s largest egg producers, to help fill the gap.
- Bird Flu Crisis – The U.S. poultry industry has suffered major losses, reducing the number of hens available to lay eggs.
- Supply Chain Strain – With fewer eggs produced domestically, prices have surged, making imports a necessary short-term solution.
- Brazil’s Surplus – Brazil has large-scale poultry farms that haven’t been affected by bird flu, making it a stable export partner.
Why Import Eggs from Brazil?
How Are Eggs Sustained for the Journey?
Since eggs are highly perishable, they are not typically shipped in their raw shell form over long distances. Instead, imported eggs are usually:
- Pasteurized and processed – The eggs are converted into liquid or powdered form to extend shelf life.
- Shipped under controlled temperatures – If fresh eggs are transported, they are stored in cold containers to maintain freshness.
- Prioritized for industrial use – Most of the imported eggs are not sold directly to consumers but are used in food manufacturing (e.g., bakeries, mayonnaise, pasta production).
Does This Mean the U.S. Can’t Be Self-Sufficient in Egg Production?
Not necessarily. The U.S. egg industry is still functional, but due to the ongoing avian flu crisis and high production costs, the country is facing temporary shortages. If farmers can rebuild their flocks and contain the bird flu outbreak, domestic production will recover, reducing the need for imports.
So, while the U.S. remains a major egg producer, recent challenges have made short-term imports from Brazil a necessary move to stabilize supply and control prices.
How does the tariffs affect the egg supply?
Great question! Tariffs don’t directly affect the egg supply, but they indirectly impact costs and inflation, which can make eggs even more expensive for consumers. Here’s how:
- Tariffs on Imported Goods Increase Costs for Farmers
• President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China (25% on imports from Canada/Mexico, 10% on China) raise costs for feed, equipment, and packaging materials — all essential for egg production.
• Chicken feed (mostly corn and soybeans) is one of the biggest costs for egg farmers. If tariffs make imported feed or fertilizer more expensive, it raises the cost of raising chickens. - Higher Tariffs Contribute to General Inflation
• When tariffs increase costs across multiple industries, companies pass those costs to consumers.
• If the price of farming equipment, labor, or transportation rises due to tariffs, egg production costs also go up, leading to higher retail prices. - Tariffs on Other Food Imports Create More Demand for Eggs
• If tariffs make other protein sources (like imported meat or dairy) more expensive, consumers may shift to eggs as a more affordable alternative.
• This higher demand for eggs — combined with a reduced supply due to bird flu — pushes prices even higher.
So, Why Are We Importing Eggs Despite Tariffs?
• Interestingly, the U.S. isn’t putting major tariffs on imported eggs because of the urgent need to stabilize supply.
• However, since tariffs contribute to inflation and higher costs for U.S. farmers, domestic egg prices remain high, even with imported eggs coming in.
Bottom Line: Tariffs Worsen an Already Bad Situation
• Bird flu caused the initial shortage.
• Tariffs increased farming costs and inflation, making egg production more expensive.
• With supply low and costs high, prices have skyrocketed, forcing the U.S. to import eggs to balance the market.
This is why, even though eggs aren’t directly targeted by tariffs, the ripple effects of trade policies make them more expensive for American consumers.
Will the shortage subside soon?
The egg shortage subsiding soon depends on a few key factors:
- The Bird Flu Situation
• If the outbreak is contained, farmers can start rebuilding their flocks, which takes about 4-6 months for hens to mature and start laying eggs.
• However, if bird flu continues spreading, we could see persistent shortages and price volatility throughout 2025. - Government & Industry Actions
• The U.S. is exploring vaccines for bird flu, which could help protect poultry in the long run.
• The government has also allowed more egg imports to stabilize supply, but this is a temporary fix. - Tariffs & Inflation
• If tariff-related inflation eases, farmers’ costs could stabilize, making egg production more sustainable and prices more predictable.
• But if tariffs remain high, production costs will stay elevated, and prices may only drop slightly even as supply improves.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook
• Short-term (next few months): Prices may fluctuate but remain relatively high, especially if demand spikes (e.g., Easter, holiday baking seasons).
• Mid-to-long term (late 2025 & beyond): If bird flu is managed and farmers successfully rebuild their flocks, supply should normalize, and prices could stabilize—unless other economic factors (like tariffs) keep costs high.
So, while we might see some relief later in 2025, the situation depends on disease control, trade policies, and inflation trends. If everything aligns favorably, we could be looking at more reasonable egg prices within the next year.
Think-Talk 